A new study from AD Mortgage has put a number on one of the most common debates in residential real estate: is it better to buy now or wait for conditions to improve? According to their analysis, buying now beats waiting in approximately 61% of modeled scenarios — a finding that carries real weight for buyers in markets like Florida, where home prices, insurance costs, and inventory levels are all moving at once.
The study matters because it quantifies something most experienced agents already observe on the ground: the decision to wait is not a neutral one. Sitting on the sidelines has its own costs, and those costs compound.
What the AD Mortgage Study Actually Found
The analysis modeled a range of scenarios that varied key inputs — mortgage rates, home price appreciation, rental costs, and time horizons — to compare the long-term financial outcome of buying today versus deferring the purchase by 12 to 24 months.
In roughly 61% of those scenarios, buyers who acted sooner came out ahead financially over a five-to-seven-year hold period. The core reasons:
- Home price appreciation continued to outpace the savings most buyers accumulated while renting and waiting.
- Rent payments made during the waiting period represented equity that was never built.
- Rate drops, when they occurred in the models, were often offset by price increases that followed increased buyer demand.
- Refinancing was available to those who bought at higher rates once conditions shifted — but buyers who waited couldn’t recapture the appreciation they missed.
The study is not an argument that buying is always the right move. In the remaining 39% of scenarios, waiting did produce a better financial outcome — typically when price corrections occurred or when the buyer’s personal financial situation improved significantly. But the default assumption that waiting is the “safe” strategy doesn’t hold up under this kind of scenario modeling.
Why This Resonates Differently in Florida
Florida buyers face a particular version of this calculus. The state’s housing market has seen significant price appreciation over the past several years, and while some coastal markets have softened slightly from their 2022 peaks, the broad trend has been upward. As of recent market data, median single-family home prices across much of South Florida remain well above pre-pandemic levels — in the Miami metro, median prices have hovered near or above $600,000 for attached and detached homes combined.
Waiting in a market like Tampa Bay or Orlando does not mean prices stand still. It means the gap between your current savings and the required down payment may be widening, not narrowing — especially when rental costs in those same metros remain elevated. Orlando, for instance, has seen rents hold firm even as some national markets soften, which directly erodes the savings advantage renters often assume they’re building.
There’s also the insurance dimension. Florida buyers who delay often do so hoping for a more stable insurance environment or lower premiums. That’s an understandable impulse given the volatility the state has seen. But Florida’s insurance market has been showing signs of stabilization, and a future purchase doesn’t guarantee a better premium environment — it may simply mean buying into the same costs, but at a higher purchase price.
The Mortgage Rate Trap
One of the most persistent reasons buyers give for waiting is the expectation that mortgage rates will fall meaningfully before they buy. This is where the AD Mortgage study’s findings are most instructive.
Rate relief, when it arrives, tends to release pent-up demand rapidly. Buyers who were waiting on the sidelines re-enter the market simultaneously, which compresses inventory and drives prices higher. The rate drop that was supposed to make buying more affordable ends up being partially or fully offset by the new price pressure.
Mortgage rates have remained elevated and volatile, with 30-year fixed rates spending much of 2025 and into 2026 in the 6.5% to 7% range. Buyers who locked in at those rates and purchased in markets with continued appreciation are, in many cases, already ahead of those who held back — even before any refinancing.
The phrase agents have used for years — “date the rate, marry the house” — has genuine mathematical backing in the AD Mortgage analysis. Securing the asset and refinancing later, if rates decline, produces a better outcome in most modeled scenarios than waiting for a rate environment that may or may not materialize on the buyer’s timeline.
What This Means for Florida Buyers Specifically
- Inventory is not expanding rapidly enough to absorb significant new demand. As of recent data, active listings in many Florida metros remain below pre-pandemic norms, particularly for entry-level and mid-range homes.
- New construction has provided some relief in markets like Jacksonville and the Space Coast, but builder costs and permitting timelines have kept supply growth measured rather than dramatic.
- Snowbird and investor demand continues to compete with primary-home buyers in coastal and retirement-oriented markets, adding a layer of competition that doesn’t disappear while buyers wait.
What Buyers Should Do Before Making the Call
The AD Mortgage study’s 61% figure is a population-level finding, not a guarantee for any individual buyer. Whether buying now beats waiting in your specific situation depends on variables unique to you: your local market’s price trajectory, your current rent, your down payment trajectory, and how long you intend to hold the property.
Before deciding, do the following:
- Run a side-by-side comparison of your all-in monthly cost to buy now versus your current rent, factoring in property taxes, insurance, and HOA fees if applicable.
- Model at least two price appreciation scenarios — one conservative (2–3% annual growth) and one moderate (5–6%) — to see how the gap changes over five years.
- Assess your lender relationship early. The quality and responsiveness of your mortgage professional affects execution significantly. Buyers who encounter poor communication from lenders tend to switch, which can slow the process at a critical moment.
- Talk to a local agent about current days-on-market and price reduction data in your specific target neighborhood — those two metrics tell you more about near-term trajectory than any national headline.
The case for waiting has always had intuitive appeal. But the data increasingly suggests that in a supply-constrained, appreciation-prone market like Florida’s, waiting carries more financial risk than most buyers recognize when they make that decision.